Saturday, September 22, 2012

Financial : Which currency currently better


 
Greece is broke. Ireland is broke. Spain is on life support. Italy and France are about to have a cardiac arrest. And Finland wants out. Only Germany is doing well. But it is very surprise, Europe is still running a trade surplus, mainly due to Germany, it means any one can by EURO but who will be dare or ready to bring pain at home????
 
The World Currencies :====

During this slow down/recession of the world, we have noted that......
 
money goes to where it feels safest.
 
Greece people have vacant the banks and Spain are doing.......
And hence, smaller currencies like the Swiss franc and Australian dollar rose.

But there is a limit to how much small economies like Switzerland and Australia can absorb.The major currencies of the world are the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

The joker is the Chinese renminbi. China has the second largest economy in the world but the renminbi is a closed currency. It doesn't trade on the international exchange in the same way yet. It is keeping their money loosely to hold the US dollar down.

At present which currency is better ?

The US has big budget and trade deficit. The Federal Reserve is trying to devalue the dollar to increase American exports. But the US dollar has become strong lately. US is on road to print the dollar or note? Last Friday Govt can not announced and the issue is kept open in next meeting of Sept 2nd week. They want to pass the time till US President election......., thereafter lot of tax will increase and expesnes will curtail.
Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of over 200% and in 2011 ran an annual trade deficit for the first time in thirty years.
Due to the huge burden of government debt, I believe, Japanese Central Bank will print huge amounts of yen and will keep the interest rates down.

What about the British pound then?

The Bank of England, has printed an enormous £375 billion since the financial crisis in 2008.In percentage terms, this is the most of any central bank in the world. That's hardly better form than the US or Japan.
So what we can buy? The pound? The yen? The dollar?

I says none of those. I am backing the EURO. It can rise anytime because it falls too much. Moreover their trade deficit is still positive, so one day it will rise sudden.
If America makes its dollar cheaper further, then China won't allow the renminbi to appreciate. It will cheapen the renminbi to match the falling dollar. China have lot of dollar on cash hand.

And if those two currencies fall, the euro should rise. Relative to each other, for one currency to fall, another must rise. Of course, they can all fall when valued against gold.

And if US dollar is falling, then China will try to invest in European assets as they have US $  foreign
I have seen in one report that China's gold reserves are about an eighth of Europe's. That's why China has accumulated gold and should continue to do so and that is why gold is rising. If they want to become 2nd economy then they must have gold in large quantity, so in this way.... Gold will always make

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