Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Which technologies are hurtling to death? In this issue, we look at technologies and companies that may not last for long. While we may confidently utter the epitaph of many, there could be some technologies that may live a bit longer. Which are these? Read on:

Which technologies are hurtling to death?
In this issue, we look at technologies and companies that may not last for long. While we may confidently utter the epitaph of many, there could be some technologies that may live a bit longer. Which are these? Read on:























BlackBerry
RIM, the embattled BlackBerry maker, says it has not given up on the consumer market, despite its new plan to focus on enterprise customers. But has the consumer market given up on BlackBerry? The mobile has never really recovered the position it had in the mid-2000s, before the arrival of the iPhone. The subsequent rise of Google Android and a trend for consumers to use their personal mobile as their work phone too have left BlackBerry looking increasingly isolated. Don’t be surprised if RIM is forced to sell before the end of the year.

Video and digital cameras
Digital cameras still seem pretty new to most of us, and digital video cameras newer still. But while the end of the specialist device might not be in sight, they’re certainly not as fresh and new as they were. How many of us take photos on our phone rather than bring a separate camera? Increasingly, it’s the case for video as well. Obviously, for professionals and hobbyists, a quality camera can do things a puny iPhone couldn’t dream of, but for snapping the happy couple at weddings or Facebook shots of drunken nights out, you don’t need a 12.8-megapixel digital SLR. And for those of us who struggle even to keep track of the basic trinity of keys-wallet-phone, it’s a blessed relief not to have to remember a separate camera as well.

MP3 players
Like cameras, only more so. While a phone can only be so good as a camera — its abilities will be constrained by optical qualities like barrel length, always a problem on a slender phone — there is no similar limit on its ability as a personal stereo. And, as storage space becomes ever more enormous, phones can keep hold of tens of thousands of songs as well as video, images, contacts and so on, all while fitting into a reasonable space. You can even go running with them now. And, even better, you’re not out of contact on the run — unless you want to be. Stand-alone MP3 players will soon go the way of the MiniDisc.

Television
Not “televisions” — they’re fine. But increasingly, they’re being plugged into computers, which run stuff off the internet. The idea of waiting for an episode to be broadcast and watching your programme week-by-week over the airwaves is surely short-lived; video is going on-demand, via iPlayer, SkyPlayer and so on. Even live sporting events and similar are generally available online. The set-top box is going to go the way of the analogue aerial.

eReaders
Oh, come on. They’ve only been around 20 minutes. Surely the Amazon Kindle and its ilk can’t be on the way out already? But, like cameras and MP3 players, eReaders may be a victim of the mobile phone’s spreading influence. Already the Kindle is available as an iPhone app, which — with the phone’s touch-screen — is actually rather easier to use than the Kindle itself. Sure, the screen is small and backlit, but people read all sorts of things on their phone nowadays, and it’s easier to carry your phone than a Kindle, and to read it on the Tube or the bus. And as tablets get more sophisticated and less painful on the eye, the specialist eReader may struggle.

Keyboards
We’re less confident about this one, because typing things on a keyboard is still much easier than on a touch-screen; but as touch technology improves, that may change. The rise of voice recognition software could change things as well. Generally, buttons are going out of fashion, to be replaced by shiny screens; will the keyboard go down with them? Hard to say.

Physical storage media
When was the last time you saw a floppy disk? Probably, years ago. Now DVDs and Blu-Rays are set to go the same way. It might take a few years, but the whole idea of tying information to a physical lump of matter and passing it from hand to hand, or putting it in the post, is on the way out. Videos can be ordered online nowadays, via LoveFilm or similar organisations; even games can be downloaded on Steam — it takes rather a long time unless you’ve got a really high-end broadband connection (to the point where it would almost certainly be quicker just to walk to the shops), but that will soon change. USB memory sticks are becoming less common as people store their information online; even old-fashioned hard disks, miracles of technology though they are in many ways, are rapidly being replaced by cloud storage. Already most households have a CD collection that hasn’t been used in five years or more. It’s a sign of things to come.

Fax machines
Obviously. And pagers, unless you are a doctor.

Keys
Near-field technology to unlock our front doors? It’s already in use in hotels, corporate buildings and cars: how long before your Yale lock is replaced by something that looks like an Oyster reader?

Cables
And good riddance, too; cluttering up the floor, waiting to trip up the clumsy and bring large, expensive items crashing down from desk to floor in a splintering cacophony of ruin. Wireless technology has already cut the cord between the computer and the internet router, and — increasingly — between the computer and its peripheral hardware. But in recent years, even power cables have started to look on a shaky ground, as wire-free chargers for phones and tablets have started to take off this year. Whether it is practical for larger devices remains to be seen.

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